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January 7, 2010

The unpredictable darkness | Razib Khan

Filed under: Climate change,Climate change scepticism,Ethics,Religion — Razib Khan @ 1:30 am
In complex and non-linear systems, the only thing we know is that our predictions are unreliable. I fear the reliably unpredictable

I fear the predictable unpredictable. Over the past decade there have been many warnings about Global Warming; precise extrapolations of temperature increases and projections of sea level rise. Such prognostication is understandable, they make the threat concrete to a complacent public. But the reality is that these physical processes are non-linear systems subject to wild fluctuations, with "flips" between alternative equilibrium states. Try to turn that into punchy prose!

Continue reading...

The unpredictable darkness | Razib Khan

Filed under: Climate change,Climate change scepticism,Ethics,Religion — Razib Khan @ 1:30 am
In complex and non-linear systems, the only thing we know is that our predictions are unreliable. I fear the reliably unpredictable

I fear the predictable unpredictable. Over the past decade there have been many warnings about Global Warming; precise extrapolations of temperature increases and projections of sea level rise. Such prognostication is understandable, they make the threat concrete to a complacent public. But the reality is that these physical processes are non-linear systems subject to wild fluctuations, with "flips" between alternative equilibrium states. Try to turn that into punchy prose!

Continue reading...

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