Razib Khan One-stop-shopping for all of my content

September 18, 2018

On the whole genomics will not be individually transformative…for now

Filed under: Crispr,Genomics,Personal Genetics,Personal Genome,Personal genomics — Razib Khan @ 4:51 pm

A new piece in The Guardian, ‘Your father’s not your father’: when DNA tests reveal more than you bargained for, is one of the two major genres in writings on personal genomics in the media right now (there are exceptions). First, there is the genre where genetics doesn’t do anything for you. It’s a waste of money! Second, there is the genre where genetics rocks our whole world, and it’s dangerous to one’s own self-identity. And so on. Basically, the two optimum peaks in this field of journalism are between banal and sinister.

In response to this I stated that for most people personal genomics will probably have an impact somewhere in the middle. To be fair, someone reading the headline of the comment I co-authored in Genome Biology, Consumer genomics will change your life, whether you get tested or not, may wonder as the seeming contradiction.

But it’s not really there. On the aggrgate social level genomics is going to have a non-trivial impact on health and lifestyle. This is a large proportion of our GDP. So it’s “kind of a big deal” in that sense. But, for many individuals the outcomes will be quite modest. For a small minority of individuals there will be real and important medical consequences. In these cases the outcomes are a big deal. But for most people genetic dispositions and risks are diffuse, of modest effect, and often backloaded in one’s life. Even though it will impact most of society in the near future, it’s touch will be gentle.

An analogy here can be made with BMI, or body-mass-index. As an individual predictor and statistic it leaves a lot to be desired. But, for public health scientists and officials aggregate BMI distributions are critical to get a sense of the landscape.

Finally, this is focusing on genomics where we read the sequence (or get back genotype results). The next stage that might really be game-changing is the write revolution. CRISPR genetic engineering. In the 2020s I assume that CRISPR applications will mostly be in critical health contexts (e.g., “fixing” Mendelian diseases), or in non-human contexts (e.g., agricultural genetics). Like genomics the ubiquity of genetic engineering will be kind of a big deal economically in the aggregate, but it won’t be a big deal for individuals.

If you are a transhumanist or whatever they call themselves now, one can imagine a scenario where a large portion of the population starts “re-writing” themselves. That would be both a huge aggregate and individual impact. But we’re a long way from that….

January 22, 2018

The rise of Chinese science and CRISPR

Filed under: Crispr — Razib Khan @ 9:52 pm

So as of now China is producing more scientific publications than the United States of America. But there’s quality and there’s quantity. I think most people would still American science is more cutting edge than Chinese science. And for cultural reasons that may stay true for a while longer.

But there is one area where China seems to be forging ahead and likely will make advances earlier than the USA: genetics, and genetic engineering in particular. The Wall Street Journal has a long piece, China, Unhampered by Rules, Races Ahead in Gene-Editing Trials. It turns out that Chinese have been doing human trials since 2015. Meanwhile, in the USA the greenlight has still not been given (though it seems close).

Honestly how quickly the Chinese are moving in human trials is alarming. Then again, this is a country with the highest number of executions in the world (some of this is sheer size, but it’s higher per capita than the USA). So we should keep perspective. There are many worse things that the Chinese are doing in relation to human rights that moving too fast in trials with cancer patients.

In any case, this comment jumped out at me:

In traditional drug development, too, human-trial rules can differ among countries. But China’s foray into human Crispr trials has some Western scientists concerned about the unintended consequences of using the wholly new tool—such as harm to patients—which could set back the field for everyone.

Western scientists the Journal interviewed didn’t suggest America’s stringent requirements should be weakened. Instead, many advocate an international consensus on ethical issues around a science that makes fundamental changes to human DNA yet still isn’t completely understood.

As a descriptive matter, I am highly skeptical of the possibility that “international standards” is going to involve the Chinese adhering to Western standards. If a genuine international consensus is going to emerge there has to be a give and take, which means that the very high threshold set for safety in human trials in the West may not apply in China.

August 2, 2017

But editing embryos is normal science!

Filed under: Crispr — Razib Khan @ 9:44 pm

The media is writing breathless stories about the recent CRISPR “embryo-editing”, In Breakthrough, Scientists Edit a Dangerous Mutation From Genes in Human Embryos.

The paper is out in Nature, Correction of a pathogenic gene mutation in human embryos.

My major confusion is that this is normal science. The breakthrough was the discovery of the power of CRISPR-Cas9. Once the discovery was made there was a literally stampede to use the technique because its power and ease was so manifest. What’s happening now is that the technique is getting more powerful and effective. I think it would surprise people if it didn’t get better.

A major problem for economists in modeling productivity growth is that innovation is unpredictable. But in this case the big innovation has occurred. The next few decades are likely going to see progressive and continuous improvement in the technology. Where that will lead us? Unpredictable….

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