Like the last pagan Neoplatonists in the 6th century A.D., Scholars Stage and I keep blogging, even though that world is the past. Recently he wrote a post worth reading, Give No Heed to the Walking Dead. He reflects on the forecasts of China optimists and concludes in a rather gloomy manner.
I’ve been thinking about and reading about China since the middle of the 1990s. That’s a long time. China has changed a lot.
There are two general things that seem worth commenting on:
– The predictions of the inevitable coming doom of the Chinese economy seem to keep being pushed back five years. Most of us are aware of all the structural problems, from demographics to institutions, that are obstacles to China’s flourishing as a developed economy. They are still there. And it still hasn’t collapsed.
– The predictions of the inevitable liberalization and democratization of China’s politics also came to naught. Particular neoliberal theories of the late 1990s were tested. And results suggest that some inevitabilities may not be inevitable.