Delayed childbearing & autism

Independent and dependent contributions of advanced maternal and paternal ages to autism risk:
Reports on autism and parental age have yielded conflicting results on whether mothers, fathers, or both, contribute to increased risk. We analyzed restricted strata of parental age in a 10-year California birth cohort to determine the independent or dependent effect from each parent. Autism cases from California Department of Developmental Services records were linked to State birth files (1990-1999). Only singleton births with complete data on parental age and education were included (n=4,947,935, cases=12,159). In multivariate logistic regression models, advancing maternal age increased risk for autism monotonically regardless of the paternal age. Compared with mothers 25-29 years of age, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for mothers 40+ years was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.35-1.70), or compared with mothers <25 years of age, aOR=1.77 (95% CI, 1.56-2.00). In contrast, autism risk was associated with advancing paternal age primarily among mothers <30: aOR=1.59 (95% CI, 1.37-1.85) comparing fathers 40+ vs. 25-29 years of age. However, among mothers >30, the aOR was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.01-1.27) for fathers 40+ vs. 25-29 years of age, almost identical to the aOR for fathers <25 years. Based on the first examination of heterogeneity in parental age effects, it appears that women's risk for delivering a child who develops autism increases throughout their reproductive years whereas father's age confers increased risk for autism when mothers are <30, but has little effect when mothers are past age 30. We also calculated that the recent trend towards delayed childbearing contributed approximately a 4.6% increase in autism diagnoses in California over the decade.


See ScienceDaily for more detail.Comments Off

Rand Paul

A moderately sympathetic story about Rand Paul, who is running as the anti-establishment candidate in Kentucky. My bias, such that I have, is to look positively upon Paul’s run for Senate, mostly because I know that when I agree with a Paul they’ll actually stick to the stance they’re taking because they actually believe deeply in the position as a matter of principle. That being said, unlike Ron Paul his son has to cater to the needs of a whole state, so he’s trimming his sails appropriately in regards to his libertarianism. I don’t know if Rand Paul will be able to manage the trick of balancing the pragmatism needed to be a bearer of a major party nomination with the ideological purity of libertarianism. Last I checked Kentucky was one of those states which was on the socially conservative side, but fiscally moderate (like West Virginia). This might explain the persistence of high Democratic registration despite the state’s bias toward Republicans nationally; local politics is a matter of disbursement of monies, something Democrats have no philosophical issues with.

Note: Last week Sarah Palin endorsed Rand Paul. Of course, she also endorsed John McCain, who is not much of a libertarian as far as his Republicanism goes. Though I think the second endorsement was a matter of personal courtesy due to their shared history.

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Ooga begat Booga…lots of begats…Robert begat Charles

In my discussion with Eliezer I referred to "recreational genetics." Basically, "for entertainment purposes only" genetics. For example, someone with blue eyes confirming that they have the alleles on OCA2 & HERC2 associated with blue eyes. Or a man with the surname O'Neill discovers that he has the Uí Néill Y chromosomal marker. Yes, people will pay money to find out these facts which are already highly probable.

I think the news that Charles Darwin was likely of the R1b Y chromosomal haplogroup falls into the recreational category, though due to Darwin's fame the media has really been running with it. Let me point to the Telegraph, Charles Darwin's genetic history unlocked by DNA project:

Published almost 200 years after the birth, the results reveal that the father of evolutionary theory, who struck upon the theory that all humans are descended from one common ancestor, comes from a long line of adventurers, his forbears being some of the first modern humans to leave Africa for the Middle East.

...

Tests on Mr Darwin's DNA, collected from a swab of his saliva, showed that his ancestors, and those of Darwin himself, were among the first wave of modern humans to leave Africa for the Middle East about 45,000 years ago.

From there, they travelled into Europe, surviving the Ice Age by migrating south to Spain, before moving north to England about 12,000 years ago.

The tests revealed that Charles Darwin belonged to the Haplogroup R1b, direct descendants of the Cro-Magnon people who dominated the human expansion into Europe and heralded the demise of the Neanderthals.

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Charles Darwin was a genius (I think)

After watching Creation last week I decided to take the plunge and read Origin of Species. As I've mentioned before I did read Origin early in my teen years, but in hindsight with minimal comprehension. Since then I've occasionally started to read Origin, or perused an extract, but I've never made it from front to back as a sentient adult. At this point I'm 3/4 of the way through, and I need to get something off my chest: I now believe that Charles Darwin was a very smart man, a genius. I had heard other people to refer to Darwin in such a fashion, but reading his original works has brought home to me much more viscerally his incredible power of insight.

One of the reasons I hadn't reread Origin of Species was that I assumed that because it was the modern root of evolutionary biology what was correct would have been integrated into conventional wisdom and what was false would have been falsified. This impression seems to have been right. But I was shocked by the magnitude of Darwin's intellectual creativity, so many basic aspects of evolutionary biological orthodoxy are in evidence in Origin of Species, down to a very low level of specificity. Page after page I have encountered hypotheses and empirical observations which are seamlessly integrated into the body of conventional background wisdom within a modern biological education. Granted, he does not use contemporary terminology. For example, when Darwin discusses pleiotropic traits in depth he refers to "laws of correlation." But it is clear what is being elucidated in the section nonetheless, the substance has the same force even if the style is a bit peculiar.

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X chromosome marks the spot, again

A few days ago I discussed a new paper which explores the patterns of natural selection in the genome of the X chromosome. As you know the X is "carried" disproportionately by females, as males have only one copy, so it offers up an interesting window into evolutionary dynamics (see The Red Queen for a popular treatment). Today Dienekes points me to a new paper in Genome Biology which puts the focus on the X chromosome again, Characterization of X-Linked SNP genotypic variation in globally-distributed human populations:

Background
The transmission pattern of the human X chromosome reduces its population size relative to the autosomes, subjects it to disproportionate influence by female demography, and leaves X-linked mutations exposed to selection in males. As a result, the analysis of X-linked genomic variation can provide insights into the influence of demography and selection on the human genome. Here we characterize the genomic variation represented by 16,297 X-linked SNPs genotyped in the CEPH human genome diversity project samples.

Results
We found that X chromosomes tend to be more differentiated between human populations than autosomes with several notable exceptions. Comparisons between genetically distant populations also showed an excess of X-linked SNPs with large allele frequency differences. Combining information about these SNPs with results from tests designed to detect selective sweeps, we identified two regions that were clear outliers from the rest of the X chromosome for haplotype structure and allele frequency distribution. We were also able to more precisely define the geographical extent of some previously described X-linked selective sweeps.

Conclusions
The relationship between male and female demographic histories is likely to be complex as evidence supporting different conclusions can be found in the same dataset. Although demography may have contributed to the excess of SNPs with large allele frequency differences observed on the X chromosome, we believe that selection is at least partially responsible. Finally, our results reveal the geographical complexities of selective sweeps on the X chromosome and argue for the use of diverse populations in studies of selection.

The low effective population of the X chromosome and the power of drift to produce greater between population difference comes up in this paper again, as it did in the one I discussed a few days ago. What's going on here is that noisy variation has no specific direction, so random genetic variation which accumulates within the genomes of different populations will tend to be different. A given locus in a large mixed population may have many alleles, a1, a2...an, at a given locus. If you divide the population into smaller clusters which no longer have any contact, and maintain the proportions of the alleles identical to the parental populations, the frequencies will begin to drift in different directions. The probability of any allele, a, fixing to 100% is the same in all populations, but the populations will likely fix different alleles. Ergo, they will start to exhibit greater between population differences. This is easily illustrated visually. The colors below represent different alleles. In the parental population three alleles are extant at 1/3, and in the initial daughter populations they are also at 1/3. Over time one notes that in these smaller populations different alleles fix, and the variance between the populations increases. If the X chromosome always is assumed to have a smaller effective population size, then it would be more strongly shaped by these dynamics than the autosome.

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Beautiful butterflies & localized adaptation

Two new papers are out in PLoS Genetics which make inferences about adaptation using butterfly species which exhibit Mullerian mimicry. I'll give the author summaries instead of the abstracts.

Genomic Hotspots for Adaptation: The Population Genetics of Mullerian Mimicry in the Heliconius melpomene Clade:
The diversity of wing patterns in Heliconius butterflies is a longstanding example of both Mullerian mimicry and adaptive radiation. The genetic regions controlling such patterns are "hotspots" for adaptive evolution, with small regions of the genome controlling major changes in wing pattern. Across multiple hybrid zones in Heliconius melpomene and related species, we no find no strong population signal of recent selection. Nonetheless, we find significant associations between genetic variation and wing pattern at multiple sites. This suggests patterning alleles are relatively old, and might be a better model for most natural adaptation, in contrast to the simple genetic basis of recent human-induced selection such as pesticide resistance. Strikingly, across the region controlling the red forewing band, a very strong association with phenotype implicates three genes as potentially being involved in control of wing pattern. One of these, a kinesin gene, shows parallel differences in expression levels between divergent forms in the two mimetic species, making it a strong candidate for control of wing pattern. These results show that mimicry involves parallel changes in gene expression and strongly suggest a role for this gene in control of wing pattern.


Genomic Hotspots for Adaptation: The Population Genetics of Mullerian Mimicry in Heliconius erato:
Identifying the genetic changes responsible for beneficial variation is essential for understanding how organisms adapt. Here, we use a combination of mapping, population genetic analysis, and gene expression studies to identify the genomic regions responsible for phenotypic evolution in the Neotropical butterfly Heliconius erato. H. erato, together with its co-mimic H. melpomene, have undergone parallel and concordant radiations in their warningly colored wing patterns across Central and South America. The "genes" underlying the H. erato color pattern radiation are classic examples of Mendelian loci of large effect and are under strong natural selection. Nonetheless, we do not see a clear molecular signal of recent natural selection, suggesting that the H. erato color pattern radiation, or the alleles that underlie it, may be quite old. Moreover, rather than being single locus, the genetic patterns suggest that multiple, widely dispersed loci may underlie pattern variation in H. erato. One of these loci, a kinesin gene, shows parallel expression differences between races during wing pattern formation in both H. erato and H. melpomene, suggesting that it plays an important role in pattern variation. High rates of recombination within naturally occurring H. erato hybrid zones mean that finer genetic dissection will allow us to localize causative sites and better understand the history and molecular basis of this extraordinary adaptive radiation.


Here's a section from the first paper which I found intriguing:
The results therefore appear to support the 'shifting balance' model for the evolution of Heliconius colour pattern races...whereby novel wing patterns arise and spread through otherwise continuous populations behind moving hybrid zones...The 'Pleistocene refuge' model seems less likely, as recent contact after extended periods of geographic isolation would presumably have left a stronger signal of genetic differentiation between divergent races, perhaps across the genome but especially more strongly in regions linked to patterning loci...


I have no idea why they necessarily think this validates the shifting balance. You can see David's critique of the model, but reading Will Provine's intellectual biography of Sewall Wright it seems that the shifting balance sometimes becomes the evolutionary genetic version of "it's complicated."* What they seem to have done here though is refute a simple model of powerful selective sweeps giving rise to these morphs recently. Rather, these seem to be ancient local adaptations, whose frequencies and genetic architectures are perhaps perturbed by long term exogenous (e.g., environment) and endogenous (e.g., complex frequency dependencies) dynamics.

Despite my lack of clarity on a few theoretical issues, I found the papers very interesting, and haven't really processed them fully.

Citation:

Baxter SW, Nadeau NJ, Maroja LS, Wilkinson P, Counterman BA, et al. 2010 Genomic Hotspots for Adaptation: The Population Genetics of Mullerian Mimicry in the Heliconius melpomene Clade. PLoS Genet 6(2): e1000794. doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1000794

Counterman BA, Araujo-Perez F, Hines HM, Baxter SW, Morrison CM, et al. 2010 Genomic Hotspots for Adaptation: The Population Genetics of Mullerian Mimicry in Heliconius erato. PLoS Genet 6(2): e1000796. doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1000796

* I see one reference to epistasis in both papers, and that concept is very important in the shifting balance. Though I assume the LD and supergenes might point to that.Comments Off

Eliezer Yudkowsky & Razib Khan on bloggingheads.tv

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Eliezer Yudkowsky & Razib Khan on bloggingheads.tv

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Hayek vs. Keynes

You've probably watched the Hayek vs. Keynes rap by now:



Am the only one who was a little weirded out by the incongruity of John Maynard Keynes kickin' it with the honeys in the back of the limo? It isn't as if he was exactly on the down-low. He was a freak, swinging both ways, though not symmetrically....Comments Off

Katz

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